Victoria Election Simulation

Redbridge – 2026-07-02

Majority threshold: 45 seats

ALP

Avg: 43.5

Majority chance: 47.7%

90% range: 33 – 52

FP: 26%

Coalition

Avg: 37.0

Majority chance: 8.9%

90% range: 30 – 47

FP: 26%

Greens

Avg: 4.1

90% range: 3 – 5

FP: 13%

PHON

Avg: 2.1

90% range: 0 – 6

FP: 27%

What the heck is going on here?

This is a very simple simulation of the upcoming Victoria State election

  • The election is simulated 50K times adding in random polling errors

  • 100 simulated elections are shown on a line graph, sorted from highest incumbant seats to least incumbant seats
  • This model is limited and likely under predicting crossbench seats
  • Seemingly paradoxically I think that it's also overestimating the chance of a hung parliament
  • Tweaks are needed to preference flows - on a 2PP of ALP 50 - 50 Coalition it seems to unrealistically favour one side by a large margin
Danno 17/02/2026
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