This is a very simple simulation of the upcoming Victoria State election
The election is simulated 50K times adding in random polling errors
- 100 simulated elections are shown on a line graph, sorted from highest incumbant seats to least incumbant seats
- Preference flows are correct for the 2 major parties, adjustments are needed for minor parties and others
- This model is limited and likely under predicting crossbench seats
- Seemingly paradoxically I think that it's also overestimating the chance of a hung parliament