This is a simple first preference and public funding predictor based on the 2025 Australian federal election.
This looks at the first preference vote at the 2025 election and models what might happen in the future
- This is not a robust prediction, more like a what if scenario
This doesn't yet match how the public funding rules of parties really works
- This assumes a population growth of 1.5% per year
- This calculates based on national % > than 4% where AEC looks at 4% in an electorate
- There's a large jump from 0 years to 1 year. This is because at the last election each first preference is $3.5 public funding for that party From the next election onwards each first preference is $5 of public funding
- A bug seems to be applying generation change at year 0 - % of FP votes at 0 years should be the same as the election