ALP 94 (maj)
LNP 43
IND 10
CA 1
KAT 1
GRN 1
BrandBrand 2025 result — ALP 66.9% vs 33.1%BullwinkelBullwinkel 2025 result — ALP 50.5% vs 49.5%BurtBurt 2025 result — ALP 65.7% vs 34.3%CanningCanning 2025 result — LNP 56.6% vs 43.4%CowanCowan 2025 result — ALP 63.6% vs 36.4%CurtinCurtin 2025 result — IND 53.3% vs 46.7%DurackDurack 2025 result — LNP 60.2% vs 39.8%ForrestForrest 2025 result — LNP 52.2% vs 47.8%FremantleFremantle 2025 result — ALP 50.7% vs 49.3%HasluckHasluck 2025 result — ALP 66% vs 34%MooreMoore 2025 result — LNP 47.1% vs 52.9%O'ConnerO'Conner 2025 result — LNP 63.3% vs 36.7%PearcePearce 2025 result — ALP 56.4% vs 43.6%PerthPerth 2025 result — ALP 66.5% vs 33.5%SwanSwan 2025 result — ALP 64% vs 36%TangneyTangney 2025 result — ALP 57% vs 43%SolomonSolomon 2025 result — ALP 58.1% vs 41.9%LingiariLingiari 2025 result — ALP 51.3% vs 48.7%AdelaideAdelaide 2025 result — ALP 69.1% vs 30.9%BarkerBarker 2025 result — LNP 63% vs 37%BoothbyBoothby 2025 result — ALP 61.1% vs 38.9%GreyGrey 2025 result — LNP 54.6% vs 45.4%HindmarshHindmarsh 2025 result — ALP 66.3% vs 33.7%KingstonKingston 2025 result — ALP 70.7% vs 29.3%MakinMakin 2025 result — ALP 64.7% vs 35.3%MayoMayo 2025 result — CA 64.9% vs 35.1%SpenceSpence 2025 result — ALP 65.3% vs 34.7%SturtSturt 2025 result — ALP 56.6% vs 43.4%BeanBean 2025 result — ALP 50.3% vs 49.7%CanberraCanberra 2025 result — ALP 69.5% vs 30.5%FennerFenner 2025 result — ALP 72.1% vs 27.9%BanksBanks 2025 result — ALP 52.4% vs 47.6%BartonBarton 2025 result — ALP 66% vs 34%BennelongBennelong 2025 result — ALP 59.3% vs 40.7%BerowraBerowra 2025 result — LNP 51.6% vs 48.4%BlaxlandBlaxland 2025 result — ALP 71.9% vs 28.1%BradfieldBradfield 2025 result — LNP 50% vs 50%CalareCalare 2025 result — IND 56.8% vs 43.2%ChifleyChifley 2025 result — ALP 69.8% vs 30.2%CookCook 2025 result — LNP 57.2% vs 42.8%CowperCowper 2025 result — LNP 52.5% vs 47.5%CunninghamCunningham 2025 result — ALP 67.5% vs 32.5%DobellDobell 2025 result — ALP 59.4% vs 40.6%Eden-MonaroEden-Monaro 2025 result — ALP 57.2% vs 42.8%FarrerFarrer 2025 result — LNP 56.2% vs 43.8%FowlerFowler 2025 result — IND 52.7% vs 47.3%GilmoreGilmore 2025 result — ALP 55.1% vs 44.9%GrayndlerGrayndler 2025 result — ALP 66.9% vs 33.1%GreenwayGreenway 2025 result — ALP 63.8% vs 36.2%HughesHughes 2025 result — ALP 53.1% vs 46.9%HumeHume 2025 result — LNP 58.1% vs 41.9%HunterHunter 2025 result — ALP 59% vs 41%Kingsford SmithKingsford Smith 2025 result — ALP 67.2% vs 32.8%LindsayLindsay 2025 result — LNP 52.8% vs 47.2%LyneLyne 2025 result — LNP 59.8% vs 40.2%MacarthurMacarthur 2025 result — ALP 65.6% vs 34400%MackellerMackeller 2025 result — IND 55.7% vs 44.3%MacquarieMacquarie 2025 result — ALP 57.7% vs 42.3%McMahonMcMahon 2025 result — ALP 59% vs 41%MitchellMitchell 2025 result — LNP 53.8% vs 46.2%NewcastleNewcastle 2025 result — ALP 65.8% vs 34.2%New EnglandNew England 2025 result — LNP 67.1% vs 32.9%PagePage 2025 result — LNP 59.3% vs 40.7%ParkesParkes 2025 result — LNP 63% vs 37%ParramattaParramatta 2025 result — ALP 62.5% vs 37.5%PatersonPaterson 2025 result — ALP 56.9% vs 43.1%ReidReid 2025 result — ALP 62% vs 38%RichmondRichmond 2025 result — ALP 60% vs 40%RiverinaRiverina 2025 result — LNP 62% vs 38%RobertsonRobertson 2025 result — ALP 59.4% vs 40.6%ShortlandShortland 2025 result — ALP 61.5% vs 38.5%SydneySydney 2025 result — ALP 70.9% vs 29.1%WarringahWarringah 2025 result — IND 61.2% vs 38.8%WatsonWatson 2025 result — ALP 66.5% vs 33.5%WentworthWentworth 2025 result — IND 58.3% vs 41.7%WerriwaWerriwa 2025 result — ALP 56.8% vs 43.2%WhitlamWhitlam 2025 result — ALP 56.2% vs 43.8%BassBass 2025 result — ALP 58% vs 42%BraddonBraddon 2025 result — ALP 57.2% vs 42.8%ClarkClark 2025 result — IND 70.4% vs 29.6%FranklinFranklin 2025 result — ALP 57.8% vs 42.2%LyonsLyons 2025 result — ALP 61.6% vs 38.4%AstonAston 2025 result — ALP 53.4% vs 46.6%BallaratBallarat 2025 result — ALP 60.7% vs 39.3%BendigoBendigo 2025 result — ALP 51.4% vs 48.6%BruceBruce 2025 result — ALP 64.6% vs 35.4%CalwellCalwell 2025 result — ALP 55.1% vs 44.9%CaseyCasey 2025 result — LNP 52.9% vs 47.1%ChisholmChisholm 2025 result — ALP 55.7% vs 44.3%CooperCooper 2025 result — ALP 59.7% vs 40.3%CorangamiteCorangamite 2025 result — ALP 58% vs 42%CorioCorio 2025 result — ALP 63.2% vs 36.8%DeakinDeakin 2025 result — ALP 52.8% vs 47.2%DunkleyDunkley 2025 result — ALP 57.1% vs 42.9%FlindersFlinders 2025 result — LNP 52.3% vs 47.7%FraiserFraiser 2025 result — ALP 59.2% vs 40.8%GellibrandGellibrand 2025 result — ALP 65.1% vs 34.9%GippslandGippsland 2025 result — LNP 69.4% vs 30.6%GoldsteinGoldstein 2025 result — LNP 50.1% vs 49.9%GortonGorton 2025 result — ALP 60.3% vs 39.7%HawkeHawke 2025 result — ALP 57.6% vs 42.4%HoltHolt 2025 result — ALP 64% vs 36%HothamHotham 2025 result — ALP 66.9% vs 33.1%IndiIndi 2025 result — IND 58.6% vs 41.4%IsaacsIsaacs 2025 result — ALP 64.3% vs 35.7%JagajagaJagajaga 2025 result — ALP 62.9% vs 37.1%KooyongKooyong 2025 result — IND 50.7% vs 49.3%LalorLalor 2025 result — ALP 63.2% vs 36.8%La TrobeLa Trobe 2025 result — LNP 52.1% vs 47.9%MacnamaraMacnamara 2025 result — ALP 61.8% vs 38.2%MalleeMallee 2025 result — LNP 69% vs 31%MaribyrnongMaribyrnong 2025 result — ALP 62.6% vs 37.4%McEwenMcEwen 2025 result — ALP 54.8% vs 45.2%MelbourneMelbourne 2025 result — GRN 47% vs 53%MenziesMenzies 2025 result — LNP 48.9% vs 51.1%MonashMonash 2025 result — LNP 54.1% vs 45.9%NichollsNicholls 2025 result — ALP 35.6% vs 64.4%ScullinScullin 2025 result — ALP 64.3% vs 35.7%WannonWannon 2025 result — LNP 53.3% vs 46.7%WillsWills 2025 result — ALP 51.4% vs 48.6%BlairBlair 2025 result — ALP 55.7% vs 44.3%BonnerBonner 2025 result — ALP 55% vs 45%BowmanBowman 2025 result — LNP 52.4% vs 47.6%BrisbaneBrisbane 2025 result — ALP 59% vs 41%CapricorniaCapricornia 2025 result — LNP 55.8% vs 44.2%DawsonDawson 2025 result — ALP 38.2% vs 61.8%DicksonDickson 2025 result — ALP 56% vs 44%FaddenFadden 2025 result — ALP 43.1% vs 56.9%FairfaxFairfax 2025 result — ALP 46.8% vs 53.2%FisherFisher 2025 result — ALP 44% vs 56%FlynnFlynn 2025 result — LNP 60.2% vs 39.2%FordeForde 2025 result — ALP 51.8% vs 48.2%GriffithGriffith 2025 result — ALP 60.6% vs 39.4%GroomGroom 2025 result — LNP 55.7% vs 44.3%HerbertHerbert 2025 result — LNP 63.4% vs 36.6%HinklerHinkler 2025 result — LNP 56.3% vs 43.7%KennedyKennedy 2025 result — KAT 65.8% vs 34.2%LeichhardtLeichhardt 2025 result — ALP 56% vs 44%LilleyLilley 2025 result — ALP 64.5% vs 35.5%LongmanLongman 2025 result — LNP 50.1% vs 49.9%MaranoaMaranoa 2025 result — LNP 70.1% vs 29.9%McPhersonMcPherson 2025 result — LNP 54.4% vs 45.6%MoncrieffMoncrieff 2025 result — LNP 58.8% vs 41.2%MoretonMoreton 2025 result — ALP 66.1% vs 33.9%OxleyOxley 2025 result — ALP 69.2% vs 30.8%PetriePetrie 2025 result — ALP 51.2% vs 48.8%RankinRankin 2025 result — ALP 65.6% vs 34.4%RyanRyan 2025 result — GRN 53.3% vs 46.7%Wide BayWide Bay 2025 result — LNP 57.6% vs 42.4%WrightWright 2025 result — ALP 42% vs 58%

What the heck is going on here?

This is a simple seat predictor based on the 2025 Australian federal election.

  • It assumes that the last 2 candidates from the 2025 election are the only candidates that can win the seat

  • This isn't a robust prediction, it's more like a what if scenario

  • Coalition Recovery scenario adds 5 2PP to LNP in contests where their opponent is an ALP candidate

  • PHON Target Seats scenario replaces LNP in 25 target seats (where they weren't already in the final 2) identified in Antony Green's blog[1]

  • PHON Surge scenario has PHON Target seats and replaces LNP in more rural seats in VIC, QLD and NSW

  • Swing affects contests without an ALP candidate to a lessor degree
  • Instead of making something of value I made this
Danno 09/02/2026
Fed 25 Demographics Simulation